My plan was to share my Super Bowl LV predictions, prop bets and DraftKings Showdown picks with listeners of The Canteen but the website I was using for the prop bets had other ideas. I promised the listeners that I would make a special post with all the picks, props, and lineups for you all to consider for Sunday.
Just as I said on the show, the main thing we have to figure out is who is going to win and why will they win. Once we have that, we can shoot over to the prop bets and finish our wagering day with a couple of DraftKings Showdown Lineups. You can listen to Scott Fielder and I discuss this game and much more!!
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
For me, taking Tampa Bay is an easy choice. I have a hard time betting against playoff Tom Brady and I’m not going against him Sunday. If you don’t believe me then ask the Atlanta Falcons or the five other teams Brady has defeated in the Super Bowl.
We have two potent offenses but the Chiefs are the more explosive of the respective offenses. Kansas City might get off to a fast start but the Buccaneers behind Brady aren’t going to crawl into a hole down by a couple of touchdowns. Kansas City averages 30 points per game during the playoffs and Tampa Bay scored an average of 30.5 points per game. Both offenses seem healthy without any significant injuries on either injury report.
The defenses are similar in many ways. Kansas City has allowed an average of 20.5 points per game while Tampa Bay has allowed 23 points per game during the second season. Tampa Bay had to stop future Hall of Famers Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in successive weeks whereas Kansas City saw Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. The latter are good quarterbacks but hardly the level the Bucs defense has faced.
I’m taking the points and going with Tampa Bay in a close one. The defenses are stout and while it’s supposed to rain throughout the daytime hours, it will be clear with temps in the 60’s. It will be the perfect night for football and I expect with all the talented offensive players, we’ll see some points. Remember these are two good defenses with Tampa Bay being the better and we’ll also see some stops along the way. Take the points and go with Tampa Bay and play the UNDER 56.5 point total.
I’m not a big prop guy at all but I did find the following prop bets to have value and we also have an edge.
Tom Brady Over 39.5 Passing Attempts
Brady has eclipsed 39.5 passing attempts eight times this season and if the Buccaneers are behind, he’ll have to sling it and he has some weapons to get the job done. Kansas City is stingy in the yards allowed department but that has nothing to do with how many times he throws the football and he will be throwing a TON on Sunday. Take the OVER at -125.
Leonard Fournette Over 50.5 Yards
He’s been in and out of the lineup for most of the season but Fournette has been a solid presence in the backfield. Fournette has exceeded 50.5 yards in each of his last three games and up against a Chiefs defense allowing 120 rushing yards per game this season and has allowed 120 rushing yards per game during the postseason. Take the OVER at -120 for this contest.
Tyreek Hill Over 29.5 Longest Reception Yards
Everyone seems to be focused on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce but I think Tyreek Hill is going to have the better game of the two. Hill averages 141 receiving yards per game and he’s lining up in the slot where he’ll be head to head in the slot with Sean Murphy-Bunting who gets torched on the regular. Play the OVER in this one at -115.
Mecole Hardman Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Hardman has exceeded 29.5 receiving yards once in the past three games and seven times this season. He’s also been targetted seven times during the postseason and has a 46-yard reception against Cleveland. With all of the talent on the Chiefs, all Hardman has to do is get open just once in man to man coverage and Mahomes will find him. Play the OVER at -120.
I like the Showdowns. I would suggest sticking to single entry contests for those of you playing at DraftKings. Your mileage may vary but below is three sample lineups I intend on using on Sunday!
Cash with Flash Best Bets has season-long totals for NFL football 62-53-1, 38-27 for NCAAB hoops this season, 15-8 in NHL, and 49-29-1 in the NBA. We’re still ahead of the game this season and it’s time to turn up the heat, raise our bankrolls, and that should begin today!
Don’t forget to pick up your copies of Betting Baseball 101 and Betting Football 101. Everything that you need to know in order to become a better sports handicapper can be found in the pages of those two books. Look for Betting Basketball 101 and Betting Hockey 101 in 2021!