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NFL For Sunday
San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Joe made this video for yesterday’s newsletter and its as good as it gets.
One of the few #NFL Week 18 games that matter 49ers vs. Rams. We have some significant levels of Support and Resistance at play here. 49ers had a nice trend line of support going and even had a support level last week some 18 games ago (which won), now they are at the period high resistance level. As we look at the Rams we see they dropped the last game ATS but that puts them at a previously 3x tested level of support. Rams -4.5 with total of 44.5. We give the total chart a quick look and see several correction alerts for the Over in the short term, possible support level but the total has tested lower in this time period. Overall a nice case can be made here for the Rams to not only win but cover the spread and win the NFC West as well as lock up the #2 seed in the #NFC. Be Your Own Expert with TheWolfLine.com Technical Analysis tools for Sports Betting.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns (Phil Naessens)
We have a meaningless football game here when the playoff bound Cincinnati Bengals meet the soon to be on vacation Cleveland Browns this afternoon at 1:00 pm eastern.
We like Cleveland here to cover the 5.5 point spread. If this game mattered to Cincinnati they wouldn’t have quarterback Joe Burrow and several other starters not playing today. Cleveland has been a mess this season but this Browns football team was considered a preseason Super Bowl favorite but injuries and other events kept that from happening. Browns quarterback Case Keenum has nine years experience plus he has enough weapons at his disposal to get the job done today. Cincinnati has allowed 51 sacks and up against a Browns defense averaging a twelth best 2.44 sacks per game to flex their muscles and dominate the Bengals offense today. Consider laying the 5.5 points and rolling with Cleveland today!
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills (Phil Naessens)
Buffalo can win the AFC East with a victory and they are 16.5 point home favorites to do so when they host the New York Jets at 4:25 pm today.
We like New York and the 16.5 points in this matchup. No doubt that Buffalo will win this one but 16.5 points is just too many to lay here. Especially against a Jets football team that is playing fairly well over their last three contests and has covered the spread in each of their last three contests. Buffalo is 2-2-1 ATS over their last five contests and covered a 13.5 point spread in their early October meeting. Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw three interceptions last week in a win over Atlanta and has tossed nine touchdowns with five interceptions over his last five while his counterpart, rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown four scoring strikes with just one interception over his last five starts. Consider taking the 16.5 points and going with New York to cover the spread in this one.
TheWolfLine Technical Analysis Take
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Total (40)
1). The Alerts
In the “correction trading” and “more liquid markets” default alert grid, we see a red alert (extremely significant) in the 3 period study window and the 5 period study window, an orange alert (highly significant) in the 7 period study window and a yellow alert (significant) in the 10 period study window, all indicating that there is probability that the “implied volatility” (“total”) could be priced too low by the market at 40 points (hence the “o”s indicating “bet the over”). Although not quite as liquid of a market as NFL “spread”, NFL “totals” is still a highly liquid market, and an alert pattern such as this should be considered a serious situation in terms of market irrationality potential. It is more than enough cause of analysis for me to choose to “bet the over” (“long volatility”) in this game/contract/relationship
2). The Indicators
The TWL indicators here are consistently high with what we would expect considering the heated alert pattern. In addition, the 20 period indicator of (-0.50) is higher (absolute value) than the 15 period indicator of (-0.40). It has been my experience over 12 years of data collection that an NFL TWL totals indicator of 0.50 (absolute value) or above should be given serious consideration.
3). The Charts
In TWL volatility (“totals”) chart for this relationship, we see a 20 period high of (0), a 20 period low of (-10), a median of (-5) and a current TWL spot price of (-10). Indicating “contango” conditions in the shorter term TWL futures term structure (“the over”) for those who are familiar with futures on volatility/VIX. We see that the line is colored red, indicating bearish conditions in that study period and in minding the main principles of options mean reversion, serial correlation and standard deviations, this is more support for a long volatility/over position buying irrationally low. probability
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons OVER 40 total points
Earn While You Learn
College Basketball for Sunday!
2). The Indicators