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FBS National Championship Game
Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide (Phil Naessens)
We’ve reached the last game of the college football bowl season and we should see a great game tonight when the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Alabama Crimson Tide tonight at 8:00 pm eastern.
We like Georgia on the moneyline tonight. Two things hurt the Bulldogs in their last meeting with Alabama; turnovers and failing to convert on third down; Georgia went just 3-12 in third down conversions and two Stetson Bennett interceptions including a pick-six crushed Georgia in their previous game otherwise we might have seen a different outcome. Georgia averaged 1.4 takeaways per contest and tied with Alabama in Turnover margin (+.04) but that Bulldogs defense didn’t turn up in their last contest. Instead, a Georgia defense allowing 186 passing yards per game got lit up for 421 yards and the Bulldogs were handed their only loss of the season. Alabama is a great football team with a Heisman Trophy winning, sophomore quarterback up against the best scoring defense in the college game…Bryce Young has had a great season but so has the Georgia defense and Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett is more than adequate to get the job done. Consider Georgia to win this one straight up tonight!
Jackson State Tigers vs Alabama A&M Bulldogs (Joe)
Let’s take a quick look at the spread and then get to our focus, the Total.
We have a decent divergence in ATS performance as indicated by the .50 calculation under the 20pb window(20 games back). Jackson State has seemingly top ticked and dropped the last several vs. the #. Alabama A+M in distressed asset territory, Jackson State and the “Fighting Deions” short fave -1.5
The focus here is the TWL Alert, yellow alert(for correction trading) in the 7pb window as these teams have combined to the under the last 7 with a single uptick(both went over) the last game. We zoom out to the 20pb chart and see the bigger picture: a larger down trend and divergence from the zero level( source of calculation/indicator). We have possibly found the bottom here and started a correction to the Over. Chart plus alert is a nice combo and there is likely value here to play the over as the total has possibly been posted too low.
*note* Oftentimes the alerted totals and spreads have money go against them, this is normal, many times market participants buy tops and sell bottoms. TheWolfLine.com defaults to correction trading, a buy low sell high model.
National Hockey League
Boston Bruins vs Washington Capitals (Phil Naessens)
Tonight marks the season’s first meeting between the two clubs. Washington is a short favorite at home and it all begins tonight at 7:05 pm eastern.
We like two plays for tonight; first off we like Washington on the moneyline at -120. The Capitals are top ten in scoring and goals against with the second fewest penalties in the league. This is an explosive Washington offense ranked eighth in scoring and we expect them to light the lamp tonight against Bruins probable starting goaltender Linus Ullmark (10-5-0). Ullmark has allowed a dozen goals over his past five games against a Washington offense scoring just fourteen goals over their past five. Boston has scored seventeen goals over their past five tilts and up against Capital expected starting goaltender Ilya Samsonov (13-3-3). Samsonov has allowed seventeen goals and is 2-2-1 over his last five contests. Consider Washington on the moneyline at -120. We also like the Capitals on the puck line ( -1.5) at +200 as we expect the Washington blue line and goaltending to be enough for Washington to cover the spread in this contest.