Line Grinders Daily: Back the White Sox Today?

Line Grinders Daily: Back the White Sox Today?

Line Grinders Daily is back for another day of sports betting chatter. Took a loss with the Phillies F5 ML moneyline play for a losing day. We have a free play for tonight’s Houston Astros-Chicago White Sox matchup. 

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Monday MLB

Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox 

Game one of a four games series pits Astros righty Jose Urquidy (11-4, 3.85) vs White Sox righty Johnny Cueto (4-5, 2.91). 

Houston is favored slightly Monday, with a total as high as 8.5 runs for tonight’s matchup featuring two teams trending in the same direction. 

Urquidy has been solid for the Astros, but is coming off a disastrous outing where he allowed five earned runs with three bombs at home against Texas. Houston won that game and is 5-1 this season when Urquidy is favored on the road. Urquidy has a high, 4.52 xERA and his road splits are likely why; he strikes out just under six with a 4.87 xFIP and over 1.5 bombs allowed per nine frames, but Houston wins anyway.

Cueto has allowed eight earned runs over his previous 34 innings pitched, and the pale hose are 0-1 this season when he takes the hill as the home underdog. Cueto is 1-3 at home this season, and Chicago is 2-5 when Cueto pitches at Guaranteed Rate Field. The veteran righty has a 4.05 xERA, but has coughed up seven bombs with 21 earned runs over 51 innings pitched at home this season.

The Pick

Chicago has a legit chance to win the American League Central, but they need a statement win over a strong club, and they can beat Urquidy tonight.

It won’t be easy tonight with Houston. They mash righties and boast one of the lower strikeout rates in the league. They’ve also scored 32 runs over their last five and average 5.87 runs per game when Urquidy pitches.

Houston needs every one of those runs because Urquidy can be a bit of a gas can. Especially so on the road, and Chicago can hit. The White Sox offense has underperformed all season long, but they have plated 19 runs over their last five and outscored Detroit 13-7 in their three-game weekend sweep.

In walks Cueto. A veteran who pitches deep into ballgames, battles and keeps his team in the game. He’s been solid over his last five starts, and this current cast of Astros have slashed .150/.184/.191/.375 over 41 at bats against Cueto.

There has to be a reason as to why Houston is only a -135 favorite tonight, and I think it’s because of Cueto. He’s pitching on national TV against a team he’s dominated, and I expect him to do the same tonight. Urquidy is going to cough up some runs, and his offense isn’t going to bail him out tonight against Cueto.

Finally, a much maligned White Sox bullpen seems to be coming around with a positive WAR rating for the month of August. Hopefully, they continue tonight and the White Sox find a way to win this one for Cueto. 

Take White Sox +121 (5Dimes)

NFL Win Totals

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Line Grinders Podcast

Tony C and I discussed value; what it is, what it isn’t, how to find it and most importantly what to do with this value once you find it.